tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 67%

  1. 15:22 MDW → 18:22 PHL
    WN 4948 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 60% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 38m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:38 MHT
    AA 5966 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Manchester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 128 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 38m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 16mMDW 15:22 to MHT 23:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.