tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Rochester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 64%

  1. 15:22 MDW → 18:22 PHL
    WN 4948 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 60% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:10 PHL → 23:41 ROC
    AA 6090 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 31m · 85% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rochester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 138 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 48m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 19mMDW 15:22 to ROC 23:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.