tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → San Diego via Austin: arrives on time 1%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 19:40 AUS
    WN 4956 · Southwest · 4h 10m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 AUS → 21:20 SAN
    WN 2593 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 4% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection26%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 74% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time1%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (26%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (4%).
Total trip7h 50mSEA 13:30 to SAN 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.