tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Nashville via Austin: arrives on time 28%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 19:40 AUS
    WN 4956 · Southwest · 4h 10m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 AUS → 22:55 BNA
    WN 2651 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip7h 20mSEA 13:30 to BNA 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.