tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → El Paso via Austin: arrives on time 15%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 19:40 AUS
    WN 4956 · Southwest · 4h 10m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 AUS → 21:35 ELP
    WN 298 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 22% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (22%).
Total trip7h 05mSEA 13:30 to ELP 21:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.