tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Raleigh/Durham via Austin: arrives on time 55%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 19:40 AUS
    WN 4956 · Southwest · 4h 10m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 AUS → 01:02 RDU +1 day
    WN 382 · Southwest · 2h 58m · 81% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 33mSEA 13:30 to RDU 01:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.