tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Reno via Los Angeles: arrives on time 40%

  1. 10:10 SFO → 11:40 LAX
    WN 4957 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 41% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:00 LAX → 14:25 RNO
    WN 2975 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 15mSFO 10:10 to RNO 14:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.