tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Nashville via New York: arrives on time 28%

  1. 15:25 STL → 18:55 LGA
    WN 4962 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 63% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 LGA → 21:30 BNA
    WN 2449 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 68% on time, 17.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (17.6% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 05mSTL 15:25 to BNA 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.