tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Dallas via New York: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:25 STL → 18:55 LGA
    WN 4962 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 63% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 LGA → 22:45 DAL
    WN 4650 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 50% on time, 13.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (13.8% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip7h 25mSTL 15:25 to DAL 22:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.