tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Louisville via Washington: arrives on time 77%

  1. 06:00 MDW → 08:45 DCA
    WN 4976 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 12:00 DCA → 13:48 SDF
    AA 4753 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 48m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 105 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 48mMDW 06:00 to SDF 13:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.