tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Sacramento via Denver: arrives on time 12%

  1. 18:40 BNA → 20:30 DEN
    WN 505 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 DEN → 23:05 SMF
    WN 1744 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip6h 25mBNA 18:40 to SMF 23:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.