tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:35 STL → 16:40 MDW
    WN 556 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 61% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 MDW → 20:15 HOU
    WN 2785 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 56% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 40mSTL 15:35 to HOU 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.