tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 21:40 BNA → 19:10 MDW
    WN 578 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 MDW → 23:02 DCA
    WN 1172 · Southwest · 1h 52m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (31%).
Total trip22mBNA 21:40 to DCA 23:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.