tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 4%

  1. 21:40 BNA → 19:10 MDW
    WN 578 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 MDW → 22:58 RIC
    WN 2875 · Southwest · 1h 52m · 12% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time4%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (12%).
Total trip17mBNA 21:40 to RIC 22:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.