tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Las Vegas: arrives on time 8%

  1. 20:15 MDW → 22:05 LAS
    WN 596 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 LAS → 00:32 SFO +1 day
    WN 2784 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 40% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection20%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 80% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (20%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip6h 18mMDW 20:15 to SFO 00:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.