tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:45 BNA → 17:50 PHL
    WN 626 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 40% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 PHL → 20:20 MDW
    WN 3226 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 62% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 35mBNA 14:45 to MDW 20:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.