tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Las Vegas via Phoenix: arrives on time 10%

  1. 19:15 BNA → 20:50 PHX
    WN 642 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 37m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:27 PHX → 23:38 LAS
    F9 4113 · Frontier · 1h 12m · 69% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection15%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 85% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 37m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (15%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 24mBNA 19:15 to LAS 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.