tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Las Vegas via Phoenix: arrives on time 28%

  1. 19:15 BNA → 20:50 PHX
    WN 642 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHX → 23:10 LAS
    WN 3284 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 50mBNA 19:15 to LAS 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.