tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 11%

  1. 19:35 TPA → 21:15 LAS
    WN 660 · Southwest · 4h 40m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 LAS → 23:28 SAN
    WN 2871 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 52mTPA 19:35 to SAN 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.