tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Chicago via Tampa: arrives on time 21%

  1. 18:45 BNA → 21:35 TPA
    WN 686 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 TPA → 00:10 MDW +1 day
    WN 4035 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 25mBNA 18:45 to MDW 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.