tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Chicago via Las Vegas: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:40 SJC → 15:10 LAS
    WN 714 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:05 LAS → 21:45 MDW
    WN 2274 · Southwest · 3h 38m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 03mSJC 13:40 to MDW 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.