tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boise → Los Angeles via Sacramento: arrives on time 35%

  1. 19:20 BOI → 19:45 SMF
    WN 717 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 SMF → 22:15 LAX
    WN 3793 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Boise). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip3h 55mBOI 19:20 to LAX 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.