tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Phoenix via St Louis: arrives on time 8%

  1. 18:50 BOS → 20:55 STL
    WN 754 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 42% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 STL → 22:55 PHX
    WN 4360 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (31%).
Total trip7h 05mBOS 18:50 to PHX 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.