tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:50 BUF → 20:30 MDW
    WN 768 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 60% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 23:00 MSP
    WN 4085 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 56% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 10mBUF 19:50 to MSP 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.