tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Miami via Orlando: arrives on time 15%

  1. 16:55 BNA → 20:00 MCO
    WN 787 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 40% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 MCO → 22:05 MIA
    WN 1516 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 75% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 10mBNA 16:55 to MIA 22:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.