tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → New Orleans via Baltimore: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:20 STL → 20:25 BWI
    WN 793 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 78% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 BWI → 23:00 MSY
    WN 4567 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 51% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 40mSTL 17:20 to MSY 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.