tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Washington via Providence: arrives on time 21%

  1. 13:00 MDW → 16:10 PVD
    WN 856 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 65% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Providence (PVD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:10 PVD → 18:45 DCA
    WN 3515 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 34% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (34%).
Total trip4h 45mMDW 13:00 to DCA 18:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.