tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Santa Rosa via Phoenix: arrives on time 40%

  1. 05:15 ONT → 06:30 PHX
    WN 864 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 98% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 43m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:13 PHX → 12:39 STS
    AA 6361 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 26m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 133 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 43m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip7h 24mONT 05:15 to STS 12:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.