tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 4%

  1. 16:20 OAK → 18:20 PHX
    WN 878 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 PHX → 00:35 MDW +1 day
    WN 2521 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 8% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time4%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (8%).
Total trip6h 15mOAK 16:20 to MDW 00:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.