tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Houston via Phoenix: arrives on time 26%

  1. 16:20 OAK → 18:20 PHX
    WN 878 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:20 PHX → 23:15 HOU
    WN 4315 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip5h 35mOAK 16:20 to HOU 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.