tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Las Vegas via Santa Ana: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:55 AUS → 17:55 SNA
    WN 901 · Southwest · 3h 00m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 SNA → 20:10 LAS
    WN 2477 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 15mAUS 16:55 to LAS 20:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.