tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Sacramento via Santa Ana: arrives on time 12%

  1. 16:55 AUS → 17:55 SNA
    WN 901 · Southwest · 3h 00m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 SNA → 20:10 SMF
    WN 3872 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection16%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 84% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (16%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 15mAUS 16:55 to SMF 20:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.