tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Houston via St Louis: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:20 SMF → 18:00 STL
    WN 920 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 STL → 20:55 HOU
    WN 3136 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 35mSMF 12:20 to HOU 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.