tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Islip via Baltimore: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:45 TPA → 21:15 BWI
    WN 928 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 41% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 BWI → 23:35 ISP
    WN 4321 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 57% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 55mTPA 18:45 to ISP 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.