tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Las Vegas via Baltimore: arrives on time 28%

  1. 15:20 TPA → 17:45 BWI
    WN 941 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 60% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip8h 25mTPA 15:20 to LAS 20:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.