tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 LAS → 23:25 OAK
    WN 2288 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 45mBWI 18:40 to OAK 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.