tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → San Francisco via Las Vegas: arrives on time 13%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 LAS → 23:15 SFO
    WN 2345 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 26% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (26%).
Total trip7h 40mBWI 18:40 to SFO 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.