tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → San Francisco via Las Vegas: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 LAS → 00:32 SFO +1 day
    WN 2784 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 40% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 85 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 10m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip8h 53mBWI 18:40 to SFO 00:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.