tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Seattle via Las Vegas: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 LAS → 00:35 SEA +1 day
    WN 4196 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip8h 55mBWI 18:40 to SEA 00:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.