tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Sacramento via Las Vegas: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 LAS → 00:18 SMF +1 day
    WN 4226 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 70 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 55m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip8h 38mBWI 18:40 to SMF 00:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.