tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Portland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 22%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 LAS → 23:55 PDX
    WN 4273 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 10mBWI 18:40 to PDX 23:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.