tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 27%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 20:45 LAS
    WN 976 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 LAS → 00:18 OAK +1 day
    WN 596 · Southwest · 1h 32m · 36% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip8h 37mBWI 18:40 to OAK 00:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.