tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 86%

  1. 06:10 BWI → 07:10 MDW
    WN 995 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:40 MDW → 10:20 PHX
    WN 3016 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip7h 10mBWI 06:10 to PHX 10:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.