tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Providence via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 16:28 BWI → 17:32 MDW
    WN 997 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 66% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 MDW → 21:25 PVD
    WN 2658 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 50% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 57mBWI 16:28 to PVD 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.