tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Austin via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:28 BWI → 17:32 MDW
    WN 997 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 66% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 MDW → 20:55 AUS
    WN 3171 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 27mBWI 16:28 to AUS 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.