Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Dulles → Denver via Louisville: arrives on time 53%
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12:48 IAD → 14:37 SDFUA 3980 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 49m · 82% on time, 0.4% cancelled
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48m layover in Louisville (SDF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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15:25 SDF → 16:24 DENUA 1510 · United · 2h 59m · 80% on time, 1.4% cancelled
Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 36mIAD 12:48 to DEN 16:24, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.