tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Philadelphia via Louisville: arrives on time 83%

  1. 12:48 IAD → 14:37 SDF
    UA 3980 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 49m · 82% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 48m layover in Louisville (SDF) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 18:25 SDF → 20:30 PHL
    AA 4720 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 05m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 138 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 48m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 42mIAD 12:48 to PHL 20:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.