tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hartford → Tampa via Dulles: arrives on time 58%

  1. 10:26 BDL → 11:55 IAD
    UA 3993 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 29m · 81% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:49 IAD → 15:15 TPA
    UA 2277 · United · 2h 26m · 86% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip4h 49mBDL 10:26 to TPA 15:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.