tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Phoenix via Houston: arrives on time 77%

  1. 09:00 MEM → 10:54 IAH
    UA 4003 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 53m · 92% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 31m layover in Houston (IAH) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 14:25 IAH → 15:16 PHX
    AA 2710 · American · 2h 53m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 121 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 31m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 18mMEM 09:00 to PHX 15:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.