tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Denver via Houston: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:10 AUS → 17:25 IAH
    UA 4004 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 15m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:19 IAH → 20:14 DEN
    UA 1654 · United · 2h 55m · 66% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 04mAUS 16:10 to DEN 20:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.